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The board is ranked by cross-book value — how much better the recommended side’s terms are at one book than the other, in probability points — and then by probability. The percentage on each card is how likely that side is to land; it is mostly the book’s own de-vigged price, because the L5/L10/season blend adds no information the price does not already carry (coefficient +0.013 ± 0.036 against 4,752 settled picks). Hit rates are shown as trend context, not as a forecast. A better price against an 8–13% hold is a smaller loss, not a profit. Parlay legs are multiplied assuming independence. Research only.

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